Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz briefly made biofuel the cheapest bunkering option in Rotterdam once European carbon costs were included, according to General Index and LSEG.
Their study found that B30, comprising 30% used cooking oil methyl ester (UCOME) and 70% very low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO), cost $74.61 per tonne less than VLSFO in April. The calculation included EU ETS allowances and potential FuelEU Maritime penalties. B30 had carried an $11–$27 premium during the preceding three months.
B100 UCOME also undercut marine gasoil for eight weeks between March and May. Between February and March, European gasoil prices rose $476 per tonne, against $65 for UCOME, as Hormuz’s closure drove fossil fuel prices higher.
The researchers caution against assuming a permanent shift. Biofuels generally remain more expensive before carbon costs, and potential penalties do not represent costs incurred by every vessel.
Hydrotreated vegetable oil and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) rose sharply alongside fossil fuels. SAF increased $636 per tonne between February and March. Aviation would need carbon prices near $445 per tonne of CO2 equivalent, roughly five times prevailing levels, to close the price gap between SAF and conventional jet fuel.