Shipping earnings reached another record in early October, with Clarksons’ ClarkSea Index rising 14% to $75,658 a day, its fourth consecutive peak and a 73% increase over a month.
Tankers led the surge. VLCC earnings reached around $660,000 a day, suezmax earnings hit a record $630,000, and clean MR earnings rose to $64,000. VLGC earnings approached $194,000 a day on the US Gulf–Japan route, while one-year car carrier charters reached $95,000. Bulk carriers remained firm, containership charters stayed elevated and LNG spot earnings improved.
Disrupted Middle East oil movements, ship-to-ship transfers, Suez diversions and longer voyages are absorbing tanker capacity. Veson Nautical does not expect Middle East oil flows to recover fully before at least mid-2027.
Strong earnings are also encouraging fleet expansion. 198 VLCCs have been ordered this year, taking the orderbook-to-fleet ratio to 37%. Container fleet growth is forecast to outpace demand, with Veson projecting freight rates falling roughly 32% between 2026 and 2029.
Freight costs are testing buyers’ limits. Transporting Middle Eastern crude to Asia now costs almost $33 per barrel, against $1.73 in January. The near-term outlook remains strong, but expanding fleets and softer oil markets could bring a sharp correction.